Government and Politics

The excellent poll analysis site FiveThirtyEight gives 10 reasons to ignore the exit polls tonight.

Ten Reasons Why You Should Ignore Exit Polls

These include the fact that exit polls have a larger margin of error than regular polls, they tend to overstate the Democrats' share of the vote, and they miss early and late voters. But my favorite reason is #10:

10. You'll know the actual results soon enough anyway. Have patience, my friends, and consider yourselves lucky: in France, it is illegal to conduct a poll of any kind within 48 hours of the election. But exit polls are really more trouble than they're worth, at least as a predictive tool. An independent panel created by CNN in the wake of the Florida disaster in 2000 recommended that the network completely ignore exit polls when calling particular states. I suggest that you do the same.

I love carving pumpkins. In the past, I've used templates that I found online to create Edward Scissorhands, aliens, etc. This year, I'm definitely going weirder:

President-o-lanterns



I'm thinking one pumpkin for each party, featuring both Pres. & VP candidates.

I've been reading a lot about the death penalty recently. I came across this (morbidly) humorous little article:

Ohio: Too Fat for the Death Penalty?

A death row inmate scheduled for execution says he is too fat to be put to death, arguing that executioners would have trouble finding his veins and that his weight could diminish the effectiveness of one of the lethal injection drugs. Lawyers for the inmate, Richard Wade Cooey II, claim in a federal lawsuit that Mr. Cooey, who weighs 267 pounds, had poor veins when he faced execution five years ago and that the problem has been worsened by weight gain. The lawsuit, filed Friday in federal court, also says that prison officials have had difficulty drawing blood from Mr. Cooey for medical procedures. Mr. Cooey, 41, was sentenced to die for raping and killing two young women in 1986. His execution is scheduled for Oct. 14.

If this works, expect to see the death row currency switch from smokes to sloppy joes.

I noted the ongoing crackdown on photography at DC's union station, in LightBoxDC was there and posted about it:

Norton Schools Union Station Management on Photo Rights, Other Issues

Norton also reinforced the fact that Union Station, while hosting a mix of retail and other uses, remains public property. "The overriding public interest has never been in doubt: to provide the public access to a federally owned facility," Norton stated.

...

Station managers said they're working to fix the problem, but Norton branded management's approach "pathetic" and demanded immediate removal of their signs claiming Union Station is private property and that photography can be banned at their discretion.

The LightBoxDC post has links to more coverage. You can view the whole hearing here.

I posted recently about the presidential candidates' usage of new tech, including twitter.

I'm still following both McCain & Obama (Clinton, too, but that's just because I haven't removed her yet). The stats in that previous post have continued along the same trajectories. McCain continues to tweet 2.5 times for each Obama tweet (M:343 , O:138; Obama still has about 29 times as many followers (M: 1,482, O:42,557).

I still can't decide who is using twitter to it's fullest potential. Obviously, Obama's tweets are spreading much faster than McCain's due to his overwhelming follower count, but McCain is using it more. Also, McCain will often reply to a direct message, showing that someone is actually reading the feed of people he's following. I haven't seen any replies from Obama, which indicates that he's using it more as a soapbox and less as an interactive communications medium. So, McCain probably wins on actually embracing twitter, while Obama is probably getting the most benefit from it.

While analyzing the statistics like this is interesting, it's obviously only a side note. What's far more important is the message that each candidate is putting out. To that end, here are a few recent tweets that I think are illustrative of each canidate's use of twitter. These are all pulled from the tweets currently showing on their twitter page, which shows the most recent twenty or so tweets. In case you think that my selections are biased, I invite you to visit either candiate's twitter page and see for yourself. I've linked them to their names in the second paragraph above. I'm certain that whenever you do this, even months from now, you'll see a similar tenor on each feed.

McCain:

New book "fleeced" by Dick Morris http://twurl.nl/iiayyc What would Obama do to country as President?

Obama with more endorsments: http://twurl.nl/vlexa4 from North Korean and Libyan Dictators, next Zimbabwe?

What do you think, has the surge worked? http://tinyurl.com/5vss6a

@MrBabyMan sorry I don't. Do you happen to know any dem leaders willing to help us lower oil prices by allowing drilling? Just looking

@MargaretSchaut Naw, that's not the case, ask average Joe who works all week to gain a Saturday with family, does he want Obama, nope

More hypocrisy http://twurl.nl/8y67d6 Obama manipulating patriotic images though he says there's too much manipulation of patriotism

Why are the Democrats working so hard to increase the price of gas?

Mitt Romney on Obama's problem http://tinyurl.com/6f7xsc

Israel taking precautions to protect themselves if Obama wins http://twurl.nl/1vsi3i and tries to force them to concede

Obama:

In Chicago,holding an economic discussion with the Democratic governors. Watch it live now at http://my.barackobama.com/l...

Made an important decision today and wanted to share it with you. Visit http://my.barackobama.com/m...

Honored to be endorsed by Al Gore in Michigan tonight. Watch live streaming video at 8:30pm EST at http://my.barackobama.com/l...

Wishing everyone a Happy Father's Day. Spoke today at the Apostolic Church of God in Chicago. Read remarks at http://my.barackobama.com/dad

Pleased with today's Supreme Court decision to bring terrorists to justice while also protecting our core values. http://www.barackobama.com

Kicking-off a two week tour focusing on the current economic crisis & the need for new economic policy: http://my.barackobama.com/N...

IN St Paul, MN speaking after securing the nomination. Watch the speech live on TV tonight or streamed http://my.barackobama.com/n...

In Middletown, CT. Pinch-hitting for Senator Kennedy and delivering the commencement address for Wesleyan University.

In MI, unveiling my manufacturing agenda. It's time to recapture the spirit of innovation that has always fueled America's economic success.

So, McCain is on the attack, while Obama is spreading ideas (wow, that doesn't sound at all like I'm drinking the Obama Kool-Aid, does it? ). Seriously, though, McCain's feed is filled with vitriol and sarcasm, while Obama is talking about his platform and campaign. You have to go back to April 3 to see a tweet that mentions McCain, and it's not the silly fear-mongering (next Zimbabwe?) coming from McCain:

Troubled by today's unemployment figures, the latest indicator of how badly America needs fundamental change from Bush-McCain policies.

While, the fact is that Obama will probably win due to Republican's current unpopularity (unless he royally screws something up, of course) this difference in attitude or strategy sure won't help McCain. It really shows him to be the same old politician that we all know and hate. It's really too bad, because for a long time, he was the only Republican a Democrat or left-leaning hater-of-all-parties like myself, could respect. But, just as Romney sold his previously-more-centrist political soul to the right-wing, so has McCain.

Update 6/23 2:00: Apparently, I'm not the only one thinking about politics & twitter: Twitter As a Campaigning Tool and How Twitter Can Change the Presidential Debate.